Phillies vs. Mets NLDS Game 3 prediction, odds, pick
The NLDS is tied heading into game three between the Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets. It’s time to continue our NLDS odds series with a Phillies-Mets prediction and pick.
Phillies-Mets Game 3 Projected Starters
Aaron Nola vs. Sean Manaea
Aaron Nola (14-8) with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP
Last Start: Nola went five innings, giving up nine hits and a home run. He would surrender three runs but take the win over the Nationals in his final start of the regular season
2024 Away Splits: Nola was 7-4 in 16 starts on the road this year, with a 3.87 ERA and a .273 opponent batting average.
Sean Manaea (12-6) with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP
Last Start: Manaea pitched in game two with the Brewers. He went five innings, giving up six hits and a home run. Manaea would surrender two runs and take the no-decision as the Mets lost to the Brewers
2024 Home Splits: Manaea was 6-3 at home this year with a 3.75 ERA and a .195 opponent batting average.
Here are the NLDS Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NLDS Odds: Phillies-Mets Odds
Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+152)
Moneyline: -112
New York Mets: +1.5 (-184)
Moneyline: -104
Over: 7 (-118)
Under: 7 (-104)
How to Watch Phillies vs. Mets Game 3
Time: 5:08 PM ET/ 2:08 PM PT
TV: FS1
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Phillies Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Phillies were fifth in the majors in runs scored this year, while sitting fifth in batting average, fifth in on-base percentage, and fifth in slugging. Kyle Schwarber led the way. He hit .248 this year with a .366 on-base percentage. Schwarber has 38 home runs 104 RBIs, and 110 runs scored. Alec Bohm also had a great year. He hit .280 on the year with a .332 on-base percentage. Bohm has 15 home runs, 97 RBIs, and 62 runs scored. Rounding out the best bats this year was Bryce Harper. He hit .285 on the year with a .373 on-base percentage. Harper has 30 home runs, 87 RBIS, and 85 runs scored.
In the first two games of the series, Bryce Harper has led the way. He is hitting .400 in the series with a .667 on-base percentage. Harper has a double, a home run, and two RBIs. Meanwhile, Nick Castellanos is also hitting well. He is hitting .444 with a home run, two RBIs, and two runs scored. Finally, Bryson Stott is also hitting well. He is hitting .286 in the two games with a triple, two RBIs, and a run scored. The Phillies are hitting .221 in the postseason with three home runs and nine runs scored in two games.
Current Phillies have 97 career at-bats against Sean Manaea. They have hit .309 against Manaea. Trea Turner and Nick Castellanos have the most experience against Manaea. Turner is 5-16 with a home run and two RBIs, while Castellanos is 6-16 with three home runs and four RBIs. Finally, Bryce Harper is 4-11 with two doubles, a home run, and two RBIs.
Why The Mets Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Mets finished their regular season seventh in the majors in runs scored, while sitting 12th in batting average, eighth in on-base percentage, and tenth in slugging. Francisco Lindor led the way. He hit .273 on the year with a .344 on-base percentage. He had 33 home runs, 91 RBIS, and 107 runs scored. Further, Lindor stole 29 bases this year. Meanwhile, Brandon Nimmo also had a nice year. He hit .224 with a .327 on-base percentage. Nimmo has 23 home runs, 90 RBIs, and 88 runs scored. Rounding out the top bats from the year was Pete Alnoso. He hit .240 on the year with 34 home runs, 88 RBIs, and 91 runs scored.
Mark Vientos has led the way in the playoffs. He is hitting .400 in the playoffs with two home runs and seven RBIs. He has also scored five times. Meanwhile, Pete Alonso is not hitting well but is driving in runs. HE is hitting just .176 but has a .318 on-base percentage. Alsono has two home runs, five RBIs, and three runs scored in the playoffs. Brandon Nimmo rounds out the top bats. Nimmo is hitting .333 in the playoffs with a home run, four RBIs, and four runs scored. The Mets are hitting .232 in the playoffs with five home runs and 27 runs scored in five games.
Current Mets have 243 career at-bats against Aaron Nola, hitting .272 against him. Brandon Nimmo has the most experience, going 13-52 with two home runs and six RBIs. Meanwhile, Pete Alonso is 16-50 with five home runs and 11 RBIs. Finally, Starling Marte is 11-31 with a home run and three RBIs against Nola.
Final Phillies-Mets Prediction & Pick
Aaron Nola finished the season with some struggles. He gave up six or more hits in four of his last five starts. Further, he had a 4.91 ERA in September, but the Phillies went 3-3 in those six starts. Meanwhile, Sean Manaea was solid in December, making six starts and giving up one or fewer runs in three of them. He had a 3.32 ERA in September, while the Mets went 5-1. He is coming off a solid playoff performance, but the Mets did lose the game. While both pitchers are solid, both have had recent struggles. Further, both teams are hitting well. The series has 21 runs in two games, and the runs will continue in this one. The odds in this Phillies-Mets NLDS 3 favor the over, and that is the best play in this one.
Final Phillies-Mets Prediction & Pick: Over 7.5 (-118)
The post Phillies vs. Mets NLDS Game 3 prediction, odds, pick appeared first on ClutchPoints.
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