Osaka draws Ostapenko comeback
By, Victoria Chiesa
One of the biggest questions ahead of the release of the 2024 US Open women’s singles draw was where would two-time former champion, Naomi Osaka, fall in her return to New York after her 2023 maternity leave.
On Thursday, we found out, and it’s a doozy: Osaka will face No. 10 seed and former Roland Garros champion Jelena Ostapenko of Latvia first up, as she looks to win her first US Open singles match in three years.
The two major champions have only played once previously, but it was when they both were teenagers: An unseeded Osaka, then 19, won 7-5, 6-4 in the first round of Roland Garros in 2016, when an 18-year-old Ostapenko was seeded No. 32.
Despite going 1-2 in the two WTA 1000 hard-court events ahead of the US Open in Toronto and Cincinnati, Ostapenko will return to New York with her unshakable confidence high after having her best-ever US Open run 12 months ago. She reached the quarterfinals, losing to eventual champion Coco Gauff—and maintained her mastery of world No. 1 Iga Swiatek in the process in a fourth-round upset.
But that's not the only big story to be found in the full bracket. Read on for more top takeaways from the 2024 US Open women’s draw.
View the full women's singles draw here.
A Gauff vs. Sabalenka rematch could come in the semis
Last year, Gauff beat Aryna Sabalenka to become the youngest American woman to win the singles crown at her home Grand Slam event since Serena Williams in 1999. The two could meet one round earlier in Flushing this year, as No. 2 seed Sabalenka and No. 3 seed Gauff were both placed in the draw’s bottom half.
But there’s a long road before they get there.
Coco Gauff, USTA Chairman of the Board and President, Dr. Brian Hainline, and Aryna Sabalenka pos for a photo after a trophy presentation following a women's singles championship match at the 2023 US Open.
Gauff will open her title defense against France’s Varvara Gracheva, while Cincinnati champion Sabalenka’s first foe will be a yet-to-be-determined qualifier—and there are other hurdles to be found afterwards. Gauff’s first seed is No. 27 Elina Svitolina, the former world No. 3 from Ukraine, who was a 2019 US Open semifinalist, and her return path to the Open’s late stages doesn’t get any easier from there.
Her projected fourth-round foe is the in-form No. 11 seed and Gauff’s fellow American Emma Navarro, who beat her at Wimbledon this summer. Her projected quarterfinal opponent? Eighth seed Barbora Krejcikova, who won the last major at the All England Club.
Sabalenka, meanwhile, will also have to be sharp early: Wimbledon quarterfinalist Lulu Sun of New Zealand, who is enjoying the benefits of her run there from qualifying with a direct US Open main-draw debut, could await her in the second round. Her possible third-round foe, No. 29 seed Ekaterina Alexandrova, has beaten her three times, and two US Open favorites—No. 14 seed Madison Keys or No. 17 seed Ons Jabeur—could await in the Round of 16. Keys and Sabalenka played in the semifinals 12 months ago—a wild 0-6, 7-6(1), 7-6(5) contest that went Sabalenka’s way after the American was within touching distance of her second major final.
play video Keys vs Sabalenka Highlights | Semifinal
Tough starts for 2024 standouts Paolini and Zheng
Two of 2024’s breakthrough players, who are Top 10 seeds, have been handed tough first-round opponents. In the top half, fifth seed Jasmine Paolini of Italy, the Roland Garros and Wimbledon finalist, opens against 2019 US Open champion Bianca Andreescu, while No. 7 seed Zheng Qinwen, the Australian Open runner-up and Olympic gold medalist, will face resurgent American Amanda Anisimova—who this time last year was in the midst of a hiatus from professional tennis for mental health reasons.
The 22-year-old Anisimova, who made the semifinals at Roland Garros five years ago as a teen, received a main-draw wild card on the back of a summer surge that saw her reach the quarterfinals of the WTA 500 event in Washington, D.C., and her first WTA 1000 final in Toronto, where she lost to Jessica Pegula. Ranked nearly No. 450 after inactivity at a point in January, Anisimova also reached the fourth round of the year’s first major in Melbourne, and this week stands at No. 49.
Paolini had never before reached even the third round of a major tournament before 2024, but her star turn into a solid Top 10 player has come thick and fast. She reached the fourth round of Melbourne, and won her first WTA 1000 in Dubai, before winning six singles matches each at Roland Garros and Wimbledon, losing to world No. 1 Iga Swiatek and Krejcikova, respectively.
She already entered rarefied air by reaching the finals in Paris and London in the same year; if she reaches the championship match in New York, she'll be the first woman to reach those three showpiece matches in the one calendar season since Justine Henin in 2006.
The Italian landed in the top half of the draw with both Swiatek and 2022 Wimbledon champion and No. 4 seed Elena Rybakina (their projected quarterfinal could be a rematch of the last-eight match won by Paolini in Paris, though questions remain about Rybakina's health and form), and lurking in her section are not just Ostapenko and Osaka, but 2023 Roland Garros runner-up and US Open semifinalist Karolina Muchova, and 2016 US Open finalist Karolina Pliskova—a potential second-round opponent.
Jasmine Paolini waves to the crowd during the Stars of the Open presented by CHASE as part of the 2024 US Open Fan Week on Wednesday, Aug. 21, 2024 in Flushing, NY. (Dustin Satloff/USTA)
Photo by Dustin Satloff/USTA
Zheng, meanwhile, had her breakout in Flushing 12 months ago—she reached the quarterfinals before losing to Sabalenka—and hasn't stopped soaring since. She and Sabalenka could play again in that round this year, and Zheng also could see a rematch with No. 24 seed Donna Vekic, whom she beat in Paris to win gold, in the last 16.
What’s to come for Swiatek?
The 2022 US Open champion, Swiatek is entering this year’s tournament as the consensus world No. 1—but outside of her dominance at her beloved clay-court major, the Polish star comes to Flushing having lost before the quarterfinals in the four of five non-Roland Garros majors played since she lifted the New York trophy.
At the top of the draw, Swiatek's first seeded foe could be No. 25 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, the former Roland Garros finalist, with 17year-old No. 21 seed Mirra Andreeva—who just gave Swiatek all she could handle in Cincinnati—or No. 16 seed Liudmila Samsonova in the last 16.
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If Pegula, seeded No. 6, wants to make a long-awaited first Grand Slam semifinal, she'll likely need to go through Swiatek in the last eight. But the second-highest ranked American will have her hands full before then: She opens against fellow American Shelby Rogers, and one of two Grand Slam winners—2021 Open champ Emma Raducanu and 2020 Australian Open victor Sofia Kenin—could then await next.
Also in this section is the retiring No. 11 seed Danielle Collins, who is ending her professional career this year. The 2022 Australian Open finalist opens in another all-American affair against Caroline Dolehide, and could face in-form No. 18 seed Diana Shnaider, the fast-rising 20-year-old talent who's won three titles in 2024, in Round 3.
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