Election set to bring seismic change to LGBTQ+ representation in House of Commons
The UK General Election on Thursday (4 July) looks set to bring a seismic shock to the representation of LGBTQ+ people in the House of Commons.
After decades of incremental gains, unusual parity between Tories and Labour, and a cross-party LGBTQ+ caucus that achieved significant policy advances, the new parliament will look entirely different. The overall number of out LGBTQ+ MPs is likely to decline and the Labour Party will dominate the new intake.
Britain has been a world leader in queer political representation. There were 67 (10.3 per cent of the total) out LGBTQ+ MPs upon the dissolution of parliament in May – by far the largest number of LGBTQ+ MPs anywhere in the world.
27 were elected as Labour MPs, 26 Conservatives, 12 Scottish Nationalists and two Liberal Democrats.
Labour’s cohort increased significantly over the course of the last parliament, while the Tory LGBTQ+ group first increased, then declined. Labour elected 18 out MPs in 2019 but that number was supplemented by four MPs coming out over the parliamentary term and five successful by-election candidates.
In contrast, there were 24 out Tories elected in 2019, five more Tories came out by 2022, but three were hit by scandals resigned: Imran Ahmad Khan in 2022, and Christopher Pincher and Scott Benton, both last year. Furthermore, 13 have chosen to not contest Thursday’s (4 July) general election, and Labour’s, Lloyd Russell-Moyle, was suspended by the party so could not stand.
Neale Hanvey (former SNP, but now standing for Alba) and Rob Roberts (former Tory, now standing as an independent), are given little chance of winning.
(Getty/Leo Patrizi)
Since 2010, there have consistently been more out LGBTQ+ Tory MPs than Labour – an unlikely twist in the history of gay rights in the UK – but there’s about to be a will major shift.
The Tory cohort will be decimated to no more than a handful of MPs – perhaps wiped out completely – while the Labour LGBTQ+ caucus could balloon to more than 40, possibly reaching as many as 49. This would be over four times the size of any other LGBTQ+ party caucus in the world.
David Cameron’s diverse “A List” of candidates in 2010 – promoting women, ethnic minorities and gay men and lesbians – transformed LGBTQ+ representation on the political right, but that legacy is set to be erased. Of the 26 LGBTQ+ MPs, elected as Conservatives at the time of parliament’s dissolution in May, six had become independent MPs over the course of the parliament, seven are not seeking re-election, three moved to seats they believe are more winnable, and the majority of the others are almost certain to be voted out.
The out LGBTQ+ Tories with the strongest hopes of returning to the Commons are Paul Holmes in the new seat of Hamble Valley, and David Mundell (Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale), although, if the polls are correct, the latter will lose his seat to Labour.
Two Tory MPs who jumped constituencies, Stuart Andrew (Daventry) and Chris Clarkson (Stratford on Avon), do have a chance of winning. Nevertheless, it remains possible that the Tory LGBTQ+ caucus, previously the largest in the world, could all but cease to exist come Friday morning. None of the 29 new Tory candidates are ahead, according to polling.
Rishi Sunak (L) and Keir Starmer are vying for the keys to 10 Downing Street. (Getty/Canva)
In contrast, Labour are poised to make gains unheard of in the history of LGBTQ+ representation anywhere in the world. All bar one of 23 looking to be re-elected look fairly certain to win when Britain goes to the polls. The only out Labour MP vulnerable to defeat is Olivia Blake, in Sheffield Hallam, Nick Clegg’s former seat which the Liberal Democrats are targeting. 21 new LGBTQ+ Labour candidates are poised to win based on the latest polling, while another three are in close fights but currently ahead.
Like the Tories, the SNP LGBTQ+ caucus is in deep peril. In 2019, 11 LGBTQ were elected to the Commons. Another, Kirsty Blackman, came out in 2023, while Hanvey defected to Alba in 2021. Of those, only two are predicted to hold their seats: Alyn Smith (Stirling) and Blackman (Aberdeen North). Six are in close races: John Nicholson (Alloa and Grangemouth), Hannah Bardell (Livingston), Joanna Cherry (Edinburgh South West), Stuart McDonald (Cumbernauld and Kirkintolloch), Martin Docherty-Hughes (West Dunbartonshire) and Stewart McDonald (Glasgow South). With Angela Crawley, Mhairi Black and Patrick Grady stepping down, the SNP could have as few as two queer MPs.
With Sarah Dyke’s by-election win in Somerton and Frome in 2023, the Liberal Democrats went from one out MP – Layla Moran in Oxford West and Abingdon – to two. They are both confident of holding on to those two seats – Dyke will be contesting the new constituency of Glastonbury and Somerton – and adding new out MPs Josh Babarinde (Eastbourne) and Olly Glover (Didcot and Wantage). The Green Party Co-Leader, Carla Denyer (Bristol Central), is very likely to be the first out LGBTQ+ Green MP and independent candidate Jason Zadrozny has an outside chance in Ashfield. Zadrozny is the Leader of Ashfield District Council where his Ashfield Independents hold 32 of the 35 council seats. MRP projections don’t do a good job of picking up the support for his local candidacy.
National and seat specific polls suggest a new parliamentary LGBTQ+ cohort of between 43-65 – with a best guest at around 58. A drop from the May 2024 high of 67. The long established parity between Conservatives and Labour will be blown apart. The new caucus will be dominated by the Labour Party with over 80% of the LGBTQ+ MPs. Chris Smith’s legacy will reemerge as the driving narrative.
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The last parliamentary LGBTQ+ caucus was made up of 73% men and 27% women. The new caucus is likely to be smaller but the share of women will increase to over one-third. No non-binary candidates are expected to be elected.
When it comes to the number of candidates, party nominations have been relatively stable over the last four elections. This year the main parties have offered 193 LGBTQ+ candidates (alongside two high profile independents) which is the highest number ever in a UK General Election. The Conservatives have nominated between 42 and 46 out LGBTQ+ candidates in each election since 2015. Labour between 36 in 2015 and 51 in 2024, Lib Dems between 30 in 2017 to 47 this year. In 2024 all parties (outside of Remain who did not share their data) have candidate cohorts between 5% and 8% LGBTQ+, the main outlier being the SNP who are at 21%. Labour have done the best job of placing LGBTQ+ candidates in winnable seats (although to be fair there are a lot more targets for Labour this time around).
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The number of out transgender and non-binary candidates has actually decreased since 2019 when there were ten. In 2024 the parties have only identified eight trans/GNC candidates. But one of those candidates, Emily Brothers in the Isle of Wight East, has an excellent chance of being the first out trans candidate elected to the House of Commons. The Conservative, Jamie Wallis, came out in 2022, three years after his election, and is standing down this time.
Andrew Reynolds is the author of The Children of Harvey Milk: How LGBTQ Politicians Changed the World (Oxford University Press).
Full list of candidates in named constituencies:
Cowdenbeath and KirkcaldySNP, Lesley BackhouseReform UK, Sonia DavidsonLiberal Democrat, Fraser GrahamConservative, Johnathan GrayGreen, Mags HallAlba, Neale HanveyScottish Libertarian Party, Calum PaulLabour, Melanie Ward
Clwyd EastLiberal Democrat, Alec DaunceyConservative, James DaviesLabour, Becky GittinsGreen, Lee LaveryPlaid Cymru, Paul PenlingtonIndependent, Rob RobertsReform UK, Kirsty Walmsley
Hamble ValleyLiberal Democrat, Prad BainsReform UK, Caroline GladwinHampshire Independents, Binka GriffinConservative, Paul HolmesGreen, Kate NeedhamLabour, Devina Paul
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleGreen, Dominic AshmoleLiberal Democrat, Drummond BeggLabour, Daniel ColemanScottish Family Party, Gareth KirkReform UK, David KirkwoodScottish National Party, Kim MarshallConservative, David Mundell
DaventryConservative, Stuart AndrewReform UK, Scott CameronLiberal Democrat, Jonathan HarrisLabour, Marianne KimaniGreen, Clare Slater
Stratford on AvonLabour, Seyi AgboolaConservative, Chris ClarksonReform UK, James CrockerNew Open Non-Political Organised Leadership, Neil O’NeilLiberal Democrat, Manuela PerteghellaGreen, Doug RouxelIndependent, Kevin Taylor
Sheffield HallamLabour, Olivia BlakeRejoin EU, Sam ChapmanSocial Democratic Party, Andrew CowellConservative, Isaac HowarthGreen, Jason LemanLiberal Democrat, Shaffaq MohammedWorkers Party of Britain, Mo Moui-Tabrizy
StirlingGreen, Andrew AdamConservative, Neil BennyLabour, Chris KaneReform UK, Bill McDonaldScottish National Party, Alyn SmithLiberal Democrat, Hamish Taylor
Aberdeen NorthAlba, Charlie AbelScottish National Party, Kirsty BlackmanLiberal Democrat, Desmond BouseTrade Unionist and Socialist Coalition, Lucas GrantGreen, Esme HoustonReform UK, Kenneth LeggatScottish Family Party, Dawn SmithConservative, Gillian TebberenLabour, Lynn Thomson
Alloa and GrangemouthIndependent, Eva ComrieReform UK, Richard FairleyWorkers Party of Britain, Tom FlanaganLabour, Brian LeishmanAlba, Kenny MacAskillLiberal Democrat, Adrian MayScottish National Party, John NicolsonConservative, Rachel NunnGreen, Nariese Whyte
LivingstonScottish National Party, Hannah BardellConservative, Damian Doran-TimsonAlba, Debbie EwenGreen, Cameron GlasgowLiberal Democrat, Caron LindsayReform UK, David McLennanLabour, Gregor Poynton
Edinburgh South WestLabour, Scott ArthurScottish National Party, Joanna CherryReform UK, Ian HarperGreen, Dan HeapScottish Family Party, Richard LucasConservative, Sue WebberIndependent, Marc WilkinsonLiberal Democrat, Bruce Wilson
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and KirkintollochConservative, Satbir GillLiberal Democrat, Adam HarleyGreen, Anne McCrossanScottish National Party, Stuart McDonaldLabour, Katrina MurrayReform UK, Billy Ross
Dunbartonshire WestGreen, Paula BakerConservative, Maurice CorryScottish National Party, Martin Docherty-HughesLiberal Democrat, Paul KennedyLabour, Douglas McAllisterScottish Family Party, Andrew MuirReform UK, David SmithSovereignty, Kelly Wilson
Glasgow SouthGreen, Niall ChristieAlba, Dhruva KumarConservative, Haroun MalikScottish National Party, Stewart McDonaldLabour, Gordon McKeeLiberal Democrat, Peter McLaughlinReform UK, Danny RajaTrade Unionist and Socialist Coalition, Brian Smith
Oxford West and AbingdonSocial Democratic Party, Anni ByardGreen, Chris GoodallReform UK, James GunnLiberal Democrat, Layla MoranIndependent, Josh PhillipsConservative, Vinay RanigaChristian Peoples Alliance, Ian ShelleyLabour, Stephen Webb
Glastonbury and SomertonReform UK, Tom CarterGreen, Jon CousinsLiberal Democrat, Sarah DykeLabour, Hal HoobermanConservative, Faye Purbrick
EastbourneConservative, Caroline AnsellReform UK, Mark AshdownLiberal Democrat, Josh BabarindeUK Independence Party, Ian GarbuttGreen, Mike MunsonLabour, Paul Richards
Didcot and WantageReform UK, Steve BeattyGreen, Sam Casey-RerhayeLiberal Democrat, Olly GloverConservative, David JohnstonLabour, Mocky KhanSocial Democratic Party, Kyn Pomlett
Bristol CentralReform UK, Robert ClarkeLiberal Democrat, Nicholas CoombesLabour, Thangam DebbonaireGreen, Carla DenyerParty of Women, Kellie-Jay KeenConservative, Samuel Williams
AshfieldReform UK, Lee AndersonGreen, Alexander CoatesLiberal Democrat, Daniel HolmesLabour, Rhea KeehnConservative, Debbie SolomanAshfield Independents, Jason Zadrozny
Isle of Wight EastLabour, Emily BrothersIndependent, David GroocockLiberal Democrat, Michael LilleyGreen, Vix LowthionReform UK, Sarah MorrisConservative, Joe Robertson
Data: LGBT Labour, LGBT Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru, Green Party of England and Wales, Green Party of Scotland, the Scottish National Party.
The post Election set to bring seismic change to LGBTQ+ representation in House of Commons appeared first on PinkNews | Latest lesbian, gay, bi and trans news | LGBTQ+ news.
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