Trump suggests Canada become 51st state after Trudeau said …...

By Ilan Berman
Senior Vice President, American Foreign Policy Council

When the second Trump administration takes office next month, it will face a thoroughly crowded Mideast agenda. Near-term priorities for the new White House include helping Israel to wind down its war in Gaza, resuscitating the Abraham Accords, and reviving a policy of "maximum pressure" against Iran. But arguably the most pressing item confronting Team Trump will be changing the status quo in the Red Sea.

Yemen's Houthi rebels have wreaked havoc there for over a year, targeting maritime commerce with sporadic drone and missile attacks. The effects have been far-reaching. As a June 2024 report by the Defense Intelligence Agency spells out, more than 65 countries have been affected by the Houthi aggression so far, with over two dozen shipping companies being forced to alter their routes to avoid attacks on their vessels. As a result, shipping via the Red Sea, which accounts for between 10 and 15 percent of all global trade, has declined by about 90 percent.

Houthi attack
Smoke rises after U.S. aircraft and ships struck Houthi strongholds, in Sanaa, Yemen, Friday, Oct. 4, 2024. Osamah Abdulrahman/AP Images
The real world costs have been staggering, and include billions of additional dollars in costs on the part of international shippers, which have been passed on to consumers as higher prices on everything from foodstuffs to commodities. The Houthi campaign has also been ruinous for regional states that depend heavily on such trade. Egypt, for instance, is estimated to have lost $6 billion in much-needed revenue as a result of Houthi operations, which have deterred global shippers from transiting the Suez Canal.

Washington's response to date has left a great deal to be desired. Back in December 2023, the Biden administration somewhat belatedly initiated Operation Prosperity Guardian, a multi-nation maritime coalition intended to counter Houthi-led attacks on Red Sea shipping. So far, though, Prosperity Guardian hasn't had much of an impact. Houthi attacks have continued more or less unabated, while international partners have been slow to come on board in meaningful fashion. (The initiative currently boasts just 20 members, and only one Mideast nation, Bahrain, is formally involved.)

As a result, though the Pentagon has already spent upward of $1 billion to counter Houthi attacks, it hasn't managed to meaningfully change the calculus of either the group or its principal state sponsor, the Islamic Republic of Iran. Worse, the Biden administration seems to have basically acquiesced to the current state of affairs in the Red Sea. It has continued to resist pressure from Capitol Hill to redesignate the Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization under U.S. law, while persistent fears of regional escalation have prevented it from widening the coalition's response. It's no wonder that military officials and outside observers have become increasingly pessimistic that it's possible to alter the status quo.

A fresh look is sorely needed. And while the incoming Trump administration has already made clear that it is wary of widening regional military involvement, it still has the opportunity to recalibrate America's approach on at least two fronts.

One is definitional. During the first Trump term, the White House correctly identified the Houthis as a terrorist group, blacklisting them under U.S. law. When it took office in 2021, the Biden White House, citing humanitarian concerns, reversed that decision. And so far, despite more than a year of Houthi aggression, it has failed to fully proscribe the group anew.

But the proper way to think about the Houthis these days isn't as terrorists, but as pirates. That's a distinction with a difference, because piracy is a crime of universal jurisdiction under international law, due to its pernicious effects on global commerce. As such, all members of the international community have a duty to counter instances of it when they arise. At a bare minimum, such a definitional change would create the basis for a broader international coalition to be assembled against the Houthis, and empower regional states affected by their attacks to take action against them independently.

The second shift concerns attribution. Washington so far has remained largely silent regarding Iran's role in enabling Houthi attacks, despite authoritative evidence that weapons deliveries from the Islamic Republic are responsible for making the group's activities possible. But Houthi predation could be curtailed dramatically if America and its allies move to a policy of extended attribution, whereby Houthi actions have consequences not only for the Yemeni terror group itself but for its paymasters in Tehran as well.

What such an approach might entail could run the gamut, from allied targeting of Iranian naval assets in the nearby Strait of Hormuz to stepped-up international efforts to embargo commerce to and from the Islamic Republic. The orienting premise, however, should be unequivocal—that, as far as Washington and its partners are concerned, Houthi misbehavior is being made possible by Tehran—and that, as a result, Tehran holds the key to getting its Yemeni proxy to stand down.

Trump suggests Canada become 51st state after Trudeau said tariff would kill economy

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