Preseason Top 25: Using projections to create most accurate ranking possible
The AP Top 25 poll was released on Monday and there were not many surprises. Iowa again snuck its way into the top 25 and Georgia is at the top. From there, the poll was mostly a ranking of who did well last season with helmet logos winning out. Not surprisingly, the Big Ten and SEC are well represented with nine teams in the top 10. The ACC doesn’t appear until No. 9 and the Big 12 first shows up at No. 12.
RankTeamPoints1Georgia1532 (46)2Ohio State1490 (15)3Oregon1403 (1)4Texas1386 (0)5Alabama1260 (0)6Ole Miss1189 (0)7Notre Dame1122 (0)8Penn State1060 (0)9Michigan995 (0)10Florida State971 (0)11Missouri927 (0)12Utah887 (0)13LSU804 (0)14Clemson689 (0)15Tennessee629 (0)16Oklahoma566 (0)17Oklahoma State538 (0)18Kansas State526 (0)19Miami (FL)492 (0)20Texas A&M292 (0)21Arizona237 (0)22Kansas231 (0)23USC172 (0)24North Carolina State171 (0)25Iowa140 (0)
However, the preseason poll is typically done in the prism of who the best teams are before the season starts. I do not believe that is the best way to come up with a ranking. I’ve decided to go a different route.
Using multiple sets of power rankings as a guide, I have picked winners for every power conference college football game and select Group of Five teams. With those projected regular season records used as a data point, I have put together a top 25. This is not a power ranking, which seems like what many try to make the preseason ranking. This is more of a projection of what I believe the AP Top 25 will look like on Thanksgiving small talk.
These rankings also limit the playoff pool and tell us who will be the real contenders for the 12-team tournament. Enough of the small talk. Let’s get to the rankings.
Adam Luckett’s Top 25
1.) Georgia Bulldogs
Kirby Smart‘s program has not lost a regular season game since 2020. That likely changes in 2024 with a harder schedule but overall roster star power and depth give the Bulldogs an extremely high floor. It would be a big surprise if this team wasn’t in the SEC Championship Game and competing for the overall No. 1 seed.
2.) Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State supporters went all-in to build this roster for Ryan Day. There are reports that the salary cap in Columbus is up around $20 million. The Buckeyes want to beat Michigan and win a national title for the first time in a decade. Day’s team is the clear favorite in the Big Ten and might have the best roster in college football. I’m fascinated to see what new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly can do with some of the skill talent on Ohio State’s roster.
3.) Texas Longhorns
Good team-building has put Texas in a great spot as this program begins its SEC transition. The offense has top-five potential with third-year starter Quinn Ewers at quarterback and the defense has quietly been top-15 good the last two seasons despite a leaky pass defense in 2023. Perhaps no program added more instant-impact players from the portal. The Longhorns are a national title contender and have a great chance to make it to Atlanta to play for an SEC title.
4.) Oregon Ducks
Speaking of roster building, Dan Lanning has quickly elevated the talent and depth in Eugene. Expectations are sky-high for quarterback Dillon Gabriel as the Ducks begin their first season in the Big Ten. Some big NIL money is being spent and it has created an elite roster for a head coach with a 22-5 career record. Oregon is Ohio State’s top competition in the Big Ten. The Buckeyes go to Autzen Stadium on Oct. 12 in one of the biggest games of the season.
5.) Alabama Crimson Tide
The national championship expectations are not going away in Tuscaloosa. Kalen DeBeor takes over for Nick Saban with a 37-9 FBS record and three NAIA national titles. The winning will continue. Alabama does not have its normal elite depth but there is still high-end talent on the roster for a coach with a tremendous track record. Alabama should be a double-digit win team again.
6.) Penn State Nittany Lions
Perhaps no team in college football will benefit more than James Franklin‘s Penn State program in the 12-team era. The Nittany Lions are breaking in two new coordinators but have a very manageable schedule. Franklin has reached 10-2 in five of the last eight seasons. That will get Penn State in the playoff in 2024.
7.) Ole Miss Rebels
There is a great NIL situation at Ole Miss and that has led to a very good roster. With three-year starter Jaxson Dart back at quarterback, expectations are sky-high for Lane Kiffin‘s program. The work in the portal has raised this program’s floor and the playoff expectations are very realistic.
8.) LSU Tigers
LSU has a ton of offensive firepower to replace and the defense needs to make vast improvement under new defensive coordinator Blake Baker, but Brian Kelly typically finds a way to get to double-digit wins. An SEC schedule that avoids Georgia and Texas with home games versus Alabama, Oklahoma, and Ole Miss makes the Tigers a legitimate playoff contender even if this team has some obvious holes.
LSU head coach Brian Kelly. (Brett Patzke | USA TODAY Sports)
9.) Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame has won at least nine games in seven consecutive seasons and has reached double-digit wins seven times in that stretch. Head coach Marcus Freeman has yet to reach 10-2 in the regular season but that could change this fall. The Irish only have three true road games (Texas A&M, Purdue, and USC) and get Florida State at home in November. Mike Denbrock feels like an upgrade at offensive coordinator. Anything short of a 10-2 regular-season record would be a disappointment.
10.) Tennessee Volunteers
Josh Heupel has quickly established a high floor in Knoxville and the 2022 season told us that the Vols have a top-five season. Expectations are sky-high for Nico Iamaleava at quarterback but we know this offense will score points. Quietly, Tennessee has one of the best front seven units in college football, and that will allow the Vols to make a run at 10-2 and potentially receive the program’s first College Football Playoff bid.
11.) Kansas State Wildcats
Chris Klieman has led K-State to 27 wins over the last three seasons and there is a belief that quarterback Avery Johnson could elevate the offense. An offensive coordinator change in Manhattan is worth monitoring but the Wildcats will compete for a Big 12 title and a league crown gets them into the dance.
12.) Utah Utes
Chris Klieman may meet his match in the Big 12 this season in Kyle Whittingham. Utah has won 28 games in the last three seasons and will get star quarterback Cameron Rising back in 2024. The Utes are a consistent winner and will immediately be a Tier A program in their new conference. Utah should remain in automatic bid contention all season.
13.) Florida State Seminoles
The folks in Tallahassee are still upset about last year’s playoff snub but Florida State will control its destiny in 2024 if they can win the ACC again. Mike Norvell‘s program gets Clemson at home on Oct. 5 and loaded up in the transfer portal again. FSU will be in the playoff mix.
14.) Clemson Tigers
Dabo Swinney‘s refusal to use the transfer portal has likely lowered Clemson’s ceiling but the new playoff era could help the Tigers. Clemson has won at least nine games in 13 consecutive seasons and most of those years would’ve gotten Clemson into the dance. People forget that this team was 10-1 heading into Thanksgiving weekend in 2022. Clemson is not far off from getting a bunch of playoff bids and will have a great shot at securing the ACC’s at-large bid this season.
15.) Iowa Hawkeyes
I’m a sucker for Kirk Ferentz‘s program but they consistently win games despite a horrific offensive operation. The defense will again be top-10 caliber and the schedule avoids Oregon, Penn State, Michigan, and USC. The Hawks have reached 10 wins three times in the last four full seasons and are a sneaky candidate to make it to the Big Ten title game again.
16.) Missouri Tigers
After a once-in-a-decade season in Columbia, the stars are aligning for Missouri to make another run at a 10-2 year. The schedule is outstanding, the offense returns some legitimate stat power, and the hype machine has given the Tigers some real momentum. However, there are some real questions about the defense and I’m not sure this team will replicate last year’s 4-0 finish in one-score games. But a 9-3 season seems very possible.
(William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports)
17.) USC Trojans
USC was perhaps the most disappointing team in college football but Miller Moss showed that strong quarterback play will likely continue during the Holiday Bowl win. Lincoln Riley has made some staffing changes on defense and this program loaded up again in the transfer portal to address needs. There will be a transition period but the Big Ten teams are going to have to try and stop Riley’s wide-open scheme. Ohio State is off the schedule. USC is a dark horse playoff contender.
18.) Boise State Broncos
A Group of Five team is getting into the College Football Playoff. Boise State seems like the top option. The Broncos have to go to Oregon in Week 2, get Oregon State and Washington State at home and should be a favorite in every Mountain West game. Ashton Jeanty is an All-American player at tailback and first-year head coach Spencer Danielson pretty much has his entire defense back.
19.) Miami Hurricanes
Mario Cristobal has arguably built the ACC’s best roster through a mixture of high school and transfer portal recruiting. Now the Hurricanes need to win some games. Big-ticket offensive transfer Cam Ward (QB, Washington State), Damien Martinez (RB, Oregon State), and Sam Brown (WR, Houston) give this offense some firepower behind a good offensive line. Miami avoids Clemson and should push for 10 wins.
20.) NC State Wolfpack
The Wolfpack have won at least eight games in four consecutive seasons and did a good job upgrading the transfer portal in the offseason. The offense should be much improved with a handful of first-year transfers starting and the defense consistently delivers under coordinator Tony Gibson. Dave Doeren‘s program draws Tennessee in Week 2 but avoids Florida State, Miami, SMU, and Louisville. There are a lot of wins available on the conference schedule making an ACC Championship appearance very possible.
21.) Michigan Wolverines
Sherrone Moore takes over for Jim Harbaugh in Ann Arbor and inherits an excellent defensive front. There are major quarterback questions for Michigan but this team should remain solid to strong on both sides of the line of scrimmage. The ceiling is lower but the floor should be 8-9 wins.
22.) Texas A&M Aggies
Mike Elko inherits a talented roster in College Station and did some strong work in the transfer portal to upgrade the defense. The Aggies could be sneaky good on that side of the ball and quarterback Conner Weigman has high-end potential. A&M can play spoiler in the SEC this fall.
23.) Oklahoma State Cowboys
Mike Gundy has consistently pumped out double-digit win teams at Oklahoma State and will again have this program in the hunt for a Big 12 title. The Cowboys return a ton on offense and defense but must play Utah and Kansas State in consecutive weeks in September.
24.) Liberty Flames
Jamey Chadwell‘s program will likely need to run the table again after getting blistered by Oregon in the New Year’s Six to be considered for a College Football Playoff bid, but that is certainly possible with no power conference foes on the schedule. The offense should again be outstanding as quarterback Kaidon Salter returns after accumulating 44 total touchdowns last season.
25.) Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Kyle Monangai is one of the most underrated tailbacks in college football, the defense is potentially top-15 caliber, and the schedule is beautiful. Rutgers avoids Ohio State, Penn State, Oregon, and Michigan. The biggest non-conference test (at Virginia Tech) is winnable. Greg Schiano‘s team will push for nine wins this fall.
Next Five: Iowa State, SMU, Auburn, Virginia Tech, Nebraska
The post Preseason Top 25: Using projections to create most accurate ranking possible appeared first on On3.
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