Why Knicks have the betting edge over Pacers in Eastern Conference finals
By Erich Richter
Knicks vs. Pacers will be as hard fought a series as any.
The Knicks are slight favorites against the Pacers.
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No one believed in the Knicks until now.
“We can see the Big City is Knicks City by the amount being bet on them right now,” DraftKings‘ Johnny Avello told The Post.
Eighty-eight percent of bets in New York are on the Knicks to win their series against the Pacers, the Las Vegas-based oddsmaker said in a phone interview Tuesday.
The Knicks are 4.5-point favorites entering Game 1 at Madison Square Garden, although in the last round we saw every underdog win outright in Game 1 on the road, including wins by the Pacers and Knicks against top-seeded Cavaliers and Celtics, respectively.
Indiana finds itself as a slight underdog to win the series, coming in at +125 with the comeback on the Knicks at -145.
“These two teams battle each other and are pretty close in talent,” Avello said. “The Knicks’ starting five is probably a bit better, but the Pacers are deeper.”
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When pricing a series or a game, oddsmakers use house-made power rankings, regardless of sport, to aid in pricing the wager.
In this series, Avello told The Post that they view the Knicks having the more elite talent, with four Knicks among the top five players in this series.
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He also added point values to each player, noting how much the spread would swing if a certain player missed a game.
“Brunson is probably four to give points to the spread,” Avello said. “(Tyrese) Haliburton’s worth about 3.5 and (Karl-Anthony) Towns is in that range as well.”
Josh Hart and the Knicks are four wins away from the Finals.
NBAE via Getty Images
Perhaps surprisingly, he views Knicks defensive wing Mikal Bridges and Pacers star Pascal Siakam in the same light in terms of value to the spread.
“Bridges is worth about 2.5 points to the spread, the same with Siakam,” he continued. “[OG] Anunoby is worth about two points to the spread.”
Avello added that former Knick Obi Toppin is about worthless to the spread.
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Knicks vs. Pacers Eastern Conference finals Game 1 best bet, odds
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It is important to note that team context is important, as DraftKings viewed Celtics star Jayson Tatum as a 3.5-point player to the spread but few would deny that he is a better player than Towns and Haliburton.
The total for Game 1 is a healthy 222.5, a massive total considering the referees’ officiating has generally allowed the game to play out and called fewer fouls—that is, unless you’re Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
DraftKings evaluates refereeing on a year-to-year basis and the officiating is certainly an area worth dissecting again.
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“We look at those stats on a year-to-year basis,” Avello said. “The reality is the casual bettor doesn’t like to bet the Under, so we feel pretty safe there.”
He doesn’t expect too slow-paced a series, though.
“I don’t know if you can say these games will be slow. 222.5 going to 223. I can see this going higher,” Avello said. “Both teams are really shooting well. Yeah, they pick you up and wear you out but the Knicks are quick to get the ball up. If teams are off shooting, the total can really go down.”
Tyrese Hailburton dribbles against the Knicks last year against the Knicks in Game 7.
AP
Looking ahead, Avello has the Thunder as -525 favorites if they face the Knicks in the finals and -600 should they meet up with the Pacers.
If the Timberwolves somehow take down the Goliath Thunder, they will be favored -150 against the Knicks and -165 against the Pacers.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
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