The Challenge 40 final eight players, ranked from least to most likely to win
Can Bananas or Derek beat Jordan? Are Jenny and Tori locked for a duel as the winner?
By
Reed Gaudens
The Challenge 40: Battle of the Eras - Jordan
The Challenge 40: Battle of the Eras - Jordan | Courtesy of Paramount Press
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Spoilers ahead from The Challenge 40: Battle of the Eras recent episodes!
The first part of The Challenge 40: Battle of the Eras season finale kicked off the new year and began what's among the most taxing final challenges we have ever seen from the show. The final eight players — four men and four women — took off on the Sinister and ran, swam, and puzzled nonstop in order to place as high as they could in their groups of four.
Jordan, Bananas, Derek, and Kyland are the final four men and Tori, Michele, Rachel, and Jenny are the final four women vying for their cut of the $1 million grand prize. The top man and top woman will each receive $400K, while the runners up will earn $75K and the third place takers will get $25K. Unfortunately, fourth place doesn't offer a cut of the prize money.
During the first half of the final challenge, frontrunners have already emerged with Jordan dominating each of the three checkpoints they have played so far. Meanwhile, the women have handed off wins and placements across the leaderboard for a more interesting game that could be anybody's to win. However, the Karma Vote also looms overhead to shake things up when it's time to crown the winner!
Before the final eight hit the ground running on their last challenge, TJ explained that even though they might come out victorious after it's all said and done, the Karma Vote has the potential to alter the outcome of the final. Obviously, some competitors were shaking in their boots more than others! All of the scores and the Karma Vote will be tallied to reveal the winner.
But which man and which woman are most likely to win? Ahead of the season 40 finale on Jan. 8, let's rank each group from least to most likely to win the season!
4. Rachel Robinson
The Challenge 40: Battle of the Eras - Rachel
The Challenge 40: Battle of the Eras - Rachel | Courtesy of Paramount Press
As much as it hurts me to say as an outspoken Era 1 fan, I don't think Rachel has put herself in the best place to win the whole season. She's played one hell of a game, surviving as an Era of just one player and making it all the way to the final. Rachel watched her Era get picked off one by one, but she's still standing and has something to prove for the franchise's original greats.
All that being said, in the first part of the final challenge, Rachel has been trailing behind Jenny and Tori, and even Michele at some checkpoints, by a wide margin. She hasn't placed first or second in any checkpoints, which will make for playing a lot of catch up on day 2. And while the Karma Vote could play in her favor among her own Era, it's tough to say how the rest of the fallen Eras' players viewed her game. Do they respect her strength and survival, or did her alliance with Bananas backfire?
3. Michele Fitzgerald
The Challenge 40: Battle of the Eras - Michele
The Challenge 40: Battle of the Eras - Michele | Courtesy of Paramount Press
I'll be the first to admit that I underestimated Michele during the beginning of the season. As someone who watched The Challenge from the earliest seasons up to Free Agents, I was unfamiliar with Michele's past on the series and as the winner of Survivor 32. But she's been the player that surprised me the most, especially with all of her wins in multiple elimination rounds.
In the final challenge, she's keeping up with the toughest competitors more than they probably assumed she would. She hasn't placed first in any checkpoints, but she's been steadily rising and looks strong going into the overnight challenge ahead of day 2. Realistically, it's unlikely that she could best either Tori or Jenny, and the Karma Vote might not move the needle. Still, you could never say never. I'd love to see an upset in Michele's favor based on her determination alone.
2. Jenny West
The Challenge 40: Battle of the Eras - Jenny
The Challenge 40: Battle of the Eras - Jenny | Courtesy of Paramount Press
All season, Jenny has been one of the strongest women on Era 4, who struggled with her social game in her own team due to some pre-existing alliances. Once the game moved from a team game to an individual game, Jenny aligned with Bananas, Rachel, and Aviv to form Bananas' Angels, which proved to be a bit more beneficial for her game and standing within.
Going into the final challenge, Jenny really started dominating the checkpoints. Although they were brutal, she pushed forward and became a real threat to the rest of the women. She's clearly the frontrunner to take home the women's half of the grand prize, but there's also day 2 and the Karma Vote to considered. The overnight challenge started to break Jenny's mentality. Can she recover in the next checkpoints? As for her karma, it's probably not bad, but it's likely not enough to secure the win.
1. Tori Deal
The Challenge 40: Battle of the Eras - Tori
The Challenge 40: Battle of the Eras - Tori | Courtesy of Paramount Press
Among the women competitors, Tori has also been one of the most consistent all season long. She's won her fair share of daily challenges and battled her way into the final by beating Cara Maria in an elimination. She's kept her good fortune rolling going into the season finale, though by the end of the first day of the final, she was beginning to struggle a bit.
While she was keeping up with Jenny for the first two checkpoints, Tori came in last for the third checkpoint. She was the only one to get the puzzle wrong and have to swim back to see the image in the trees. Surely, that slowed her down, but of anyone, she's the most dependable to bounce back. And something tells me that the Karma Vote will be kind to Tori. Never underestimate how much others dislike Bananas. Going against him could reward her in spades.
4. Kyland Young
The Challenge 40: Battle of the Eras - Kyland
The Challenge 40: Battle of the Eras - Kyland | Courtesy of Paramount Press
Kyland, what happened?! For the majority of the season, Kyland managed to stay under the radar and win when he needed to. He and his math brain were a force, and it doesn't hurt that he's athletic to boot and can show up in physical competitions. But the final competition has been a severe struggle for the Big Brother alum, and there might not be enough time to recover.
In all three of the checkpoints on day 1 of the final, Kyland placed last. Even though he was acing the puzzles, the swimming aspect of each checkpoint was putting him behind the rest of his opponents. By the last checkpoint, he seemed to be giving up on the swimming. Can he make up time now? I don't think so, to be honest. Only the Karma Vote could save him now.
3. Johnny Bananas
The Challenge 40: Battle of the Eras - Johnny Bananas
The Challenge 40: Battle of the Eras - Johnny Bananas | Courtesy of Paramount Press
The only reason Johnny Bananas isn't ranked lower on this list than Kyland is because he's been performing better than Kyland in the final. But I don't foresee any realistic way that Bananas pulls off a win in The Challenge 40. Maybe I'm way off base, but Bananas went Full Bananas all season and made a whole lot of enemies in a season where it was imperative to not do that.
In his defense, he didn't know about the Karma Vote, but you shouldn't need an incentive to be a decent person. Beyond the fact that what goes around will most definitely come around for Bananas (that Karma Vote will hurt him most), he just hasn't been able to keep up with Jordan in the final challenge. As it stands, there's no real path to victory for Bananas this time around.
2. Derek Chavez
The Challenge 40: Battle of the Eras - Derek
The Challenge 40: Battle of the Eras - Derek | Courtesy of Paramount Press
Talk about someone who deserves to win and should win! No one has put their heart and soul into this season quite the same way as Derek. Sure, they have all bled, cried, and battled the heat, but Derek has had a focus, determination, and drive that we haven't really seen from the other players. Everyone counted him out, but he performed! A steady and formidable competitor!
Another aspect of Derek's game that makes him deserving of the win is his social game. He's kind to everyone. He's thoughtful. He's made exactly zero enemies. Obviously, that goes very far with the Karma Vote, and he will no doubt be the player to benefit most from this secret vote. Will it be enough to push him past Jordan for the win? That remains to be seen, but Derek maintains dark horse positioning in the final. Again, do not count him out! He's still in this race. If not the male winner, he should be the runner up.
1. Jordan Wiseley
The Challenge 40: Battle of the Eras - Jordan
The Challenge 40: Battle of the Eras - Jordan | Courtesy of Paramount Press
Throughout the season, I didn't imagine that Jordan would have made it to the final. Not because he isn't a good or deserving competitor, but because I didn't anticipate that the other competitors would have left him in the game this long. Jordan's a shot you take early if you want to win. If not, he's going to steamroll his way through the final, and that's exactly what he's doing!
It's actually amazing to watch him during the first part of the final. He's so far ahead of the other men in most checkpoints that he could probably lap Kyland in some of them if he did them twice. (Sorry, Kyland, that was a low blow.) Jordan has placed first in every single checkpoint, which puts him in an excellent position for the win. I can't imagine that the Karma Vote will impact him too much. He didn't cause as much frustration as Johnny. Right now, this is Jordan's season to lose.
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