Bitcoin Price Watch: Will Oversold Oscillators Spark a Relief Rally?
Bitcoin trades at $108,413 with a 24-hour trading volume of $22.57 billion and a market capitalization of $2.15 trillion. In the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency fluctuated between $108,262 and $109,453, showing tight consolidation within a narrow range.
WRITTEN BY
Jamie Redman
Bitcoin Price Watch: Will Oversold Oscillators Spark a Relief Rally?
Bitcoin
The daily chart reveals a firmly established bearish trend as bitcoin forms a lower-high, lower-low structure through August, culminating in a sharp decline from the mid-month peak near $124,517. Currently hovering around $107,389, the price action is pressured further by heavy red volume, pointing to persistent sell-side momentum. No bullish reversal pattern has emerged, and a close beneath the key $107,000 support would likely confirm a continuation to the downside. Resistance remains layered between $112,000 and $114,000, suggesting that only a decisive daily close above $114,000 could signal a shift in sentiment.
Bitcoin Price Watch: Will Oversold Oscillators Spark a Relief Rally?
BTC/USD 1-day chart via Bitstamp on Aug. 31, 2025.
On the 4-hour chart, bitcoin broke down from $113,473 and has since consolidated in a tight range between $107,000 and $109,000. Volume analysis indicates strong seller dominance, particularly on Aug. 29, when red volume surged during a sharp decline. Candlestick formations, including multiple dojis and small bodies, suggest indecision, yet the context leans bearish. The price’s failure to sustain above $109,000 implies that a bear flag may be forming, which could unravel with another leg lower upon a breakdown below $107,500.
Bitcoin Price Watch: Will Oversold Oscillators Spark a Relief Rally?
BTC/USD 4-hour chart via Bitstamp on Aug. 31, 2025.
The 1-hour chart offers additional confirmation of distribution, with bitcoin attempting a brief relief rally from the $107,389 level before stalling just under $109,500. Sellers are consistently stepping in on each bounce, resulting in a descending triangle formation that points to further downside pressure. Volume remains light on upward moves and heavy on downward ones—classic characteristics of a market preparing for another dip. A short entry near $109,000 with a stop above $110,000 aligns with the short-term bearish structure, while long scalps should only be considered on a rebound from $107,000 with tight risk parameters.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart via Bitstamp on Aug. 31, 2025.
Oscillator readings reinforce the underlying bearish narrative. The relative strength index (RSI) stands at 38, indicating a neutral-to-weak momentum. The Stochastic oscillator reads 10, also neutral, while the commodity channel index (CCI) at -118 and momentum at -4,032 both flash bullish signals, potentially hinting at oversold conditions. However, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) prints -1,916, suggesting ongoing bearish momentum. Overall, oscillators remain inconclusive but skew toward continuation of the existing trend.
A comprehensive look at the moving averages points to the prevailing bearish outlook. All short- to mid-term exponential moving averages (EMAs) and simple moving averages (SMAs)—from 10 to 100 periods—are well above the current price, issuing negative signals. Notably, only the long-term 200-period EMA at $104,072 and 200-period SMA at $101,265 indicate a bullish signal, suggesting that while bitcoin is trading well above historical trendlines, recent momentum remains heavily tilted toward the downside. A break below $107,000 with volume would affirm this trend, while only a strong close above $114,000 would open the door to a bullish reversal.
Bull Verdict:
While prevailing indicators and short-term momentum favor bears, long-term moving averages and oversold oscillator readings suggest the possibility of a rebound. A confirmed daily close above $114,000 would invalidate the bearish structure and could mark the beginning of a broader recovery.
Bear Verdict:
With price action locked in a clear downtrend, lower highs, and failed breakout attempts, the dominant sentiment remains bearish. A sustained drop below $107,000 would likely trigger further declines, confirming a continuation of the downward trajectory toward deeper support zones.
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