ANALYSIS: Roster math, musical chairs and the hard cap
Photo by Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images
In his day job, ProfessorB is an award-winning social scientist. His writing has appeared in the New York Times, Washington Post, and other major media outlets. But he also dabbles in NetsWorld The Brooklyn Nets’ recent signings have filled out a roster that was underpopulated for much of the summer. With training camp set to begin October 1, the team seems to have settled on its maximum preseason allotment of 20 players. Of those 20 players—barring a preseason trade—15 will be on the opening night roster, with another three splitting their time between Brooklyn and Long Island on two-way deals. Two will be out, looking to catch on with another team, overseas or, most likely, getting a lot of minutes at Nassau Coliseum.
How will this game of musical chairs play out? We’ll hear about training camp and see preseason. But for now, the most important clues are differences in contract status. The Nets face two distinct financial constraints that will weigh heavily in their decisions and their flexibility,
First, they are hard-capped after acquiring Shake Milton in a sign-and-trade deal, the final piece of the Mikal Bridges. Their salary commitments cannot exceed $178.1 million at any point during the coming season. If they paid everyone on the current roster, they would be within a few million of that number. Not a lot of wiggle room for trades in which Brooklyn would have to take back more salary than they send out.
Second, and more stringently, their end-of-season payroll must be under $170.8 million to avoid paying luxury tax. Any tax payment this year would be modest, but any amount over the tax threshold would limit future flexibility by counting against the “repeater” provision, which penalizes teams for exceeding the threshold in any three out of four years. Paying everyone on the current roster, even if they don’t make the team, would put the Nets over that threshold since salaries of waived players stay on the league’s books for accounting purposes. That would hurt the rebuild dramatically since any new contracts would be subject to the repeater tax.
The Nets’ escape hatch is that they don’t have to pay everyone (and no doubt won’t.) Seven of the 20 players on the current roster have non-guaranteed or only partially guaranteed contracts. If they don’t make the team, they receive little or no money—and count little or not at all against the salary cap limitations. Given their dual financial constraints, the Nets have strong incentives to avoid spending money on players who won’t be on the court.
Two players, Yongxi Cui and Jaylen Martin, are already on two-way deals, which don’t count against the salary cap. So far, so good. Killian Hayes, Tyrese Martin and Amari Bailey are on Exhibit 10 contracts. They can be cut in training camp or preseason at no cost. (They would then be eligible for a bonus if they signed with Long Island, but that money wouldn’t count against the Nets’ cap, either.) Two returning players, Keon Johnson and Jalen Wilson, have salaries that are only partially guaranteed, and they could be cut without costing much ($250,000 and $75,000, respectively.)
The other 13 players on the roster have guaranteed deals. They could be cut, but their salaries would still count against the hard cap. The most vulnerable, probably, is Milton, a 28-year-old who played sparingly for three different teams last season. But he is owed $2.9 million, and that salary would stay on the books even if he is off the team before opening night. That could happen if there are 18 other players Sean Marks really wants to keep. But swallowing a guaranteed contract to open a roster spot would be an expensive investment in the end of the bench for a team whose aspirations this season mostly focus on the draft lottery. Another consideration: with four first-round picks in next summer’s draft, the Nets are unlikely to have room on next year’s roster for this year’s end-of-the-bench guys, anyway.
The most likely outcome, purely on financial grounds, is that three of the five players with non-guaranteed or only partially guaranteed contracts will be cut, with one of those three then re-signed to the third two-way spot. The surest bet to make the team is Jalen Wilson, who showed promise in limited action last season and then won the Summer League MVP award. The most likely contenders for the final regular roster spot are Killian Hayes and Keon Johnson. Hayes (23) was a 7th overall pick and played more than 5,000 minutes in four seasons with the Pistons. Johnson (22) has played sparingly for three teams, including the Nets, since being drafted in 2021.
Given his NBA experience, Hayes would not be eligible for a two-way deal. However, Johnson, Tyrese Martin, or Amari Bailey could be cut and converted at little or no cost against the hard cap. It is even possible that one of those three could be cut and converted, with Jaylen Martin demoted to a G League-only contract. (The demoted player would still get two-way money, but would not be able to play in Brooklyn.)
Real games are still a month away. But as always for players in the NBA’s bottom tier, what happens in training camp and preseason will probably be more consequential than what happens during the season—if they even get to the season.
Indeed, the season is likely to resemble another child’s game, the merry-go-round with players jumping on and off as Sean Marks & co. juggle the current books to protect the future ones.
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