>>This is why I’m critical about charts. They don’t have the ability to take anything but historical data into consideration. <<
This is true Stefan, but this is also true of any form of analysis. There is no analysis that can predict the future. We can only make projection/educated guesses.
>>If there is a terrorist threat then your chart is not going to act differently. But this will have a significant impact on gold. As it has on oil.<<
Oil and Gold have given excellent technical signals lately. Some have worked, some haven’t…no differnt to normal.
However no analysis will be of much use in a sudden event such as a terrorist attack.
>>So I believe that charts can only do the trick in a “normal” trading environment.<<
Yes I do agree with this. Extreme volatilty is a pig to trade. But once again, this is no different to f/a. The fundy or the techie will need deep pockets indeed to trade these events…unless already on the right side of the movement.
I don’t know how a fundy would do it but a techie will ajust trading plan and position size to account for the volatility
>>And since we are not exactly living in trouble free times, I doubt that you will be very successful following charts in gold and oil.<<
My account shows otherwise
As for the tading signal I posted above. Bear in mind that is was t/a which alerted me to a *potential* trading opportunity. It was also t/a which ultimatey discounted the signal as invalid…In other words my sytem worked ecaxtly the way I wanted it to.
The aim is not to be right 100% of the time. The aim is to maximise gain as a % of dollars risked. My expectancy figures have been in excess of 1.5 for a loooong time. So you can decide t/a is not for you, but you cannot legitimately deny that t/a works. That would be like me saying f/a does not work, which is obviously ludicrous.
I’ll let you in on a secret. I’m a terrible fundamental analysist. It doesn’t work for me. But I cannot deny that it works. Buffet et al would not even bother laughing if I said someting as silly as that.
But try to walk up to the folks at Dunn Capital and tell them t/a doesn’t work. They would recommend a nice friendly therapist for you.